Il faut dire en préambule que ceci n'est pas un conseil d'achat ou de vente, qu'il s'agit uniquement de mon opinion, et que je ne suis pas affilié au monde de la finance. Cette valeur est sujette à une forte volatilité en raison de sa faible liquidité. C'est une small cap cotée sur l'AIM
Gasol plc
Cotation: AIM Market
Capitalisation boursière: 12 M. de £
Cash en banque: 3.2 M. de £
http://www.gasol.co.uk/index.asp
-Activités de Gasol: Se développer dans le secteur du LNG notamment en Afrique et plus particulièrement dans le golfe de guinée. Mettre en place une sorte d'"autoroute du Gaz" en provenance principalement du Nigéria afin d'alimenter les stations de LNG existantes en Guinée équatoriale et en projet dans la région.
-Le LNG, définition et marché:
C'est une modification de l'état physique du gaz afin de pouvoir le transporter sur de longues distances. La problématique est la suivante:
Les marchés du gaz se trouvent essentiellement au sein des pays développés. Or, la demande de gaz devrait connaître dans les années à venir une croissance assez forte, ce qui préoccupe fortement l'UE. En effet, le gaz que nous consommons provient en grande partie de la Russie. Sur la base des prévisions de l'AIE, la demande devrait connaître une forte croissance dans les années à venir (Total en fait par exemple son marché de prédilection notamment avec des taux de croissance attendus de l'ordre de 8%/an jusqu'en 2015) et la diversification de l'approvisionnement pose problème aujourd'hui surtout dans un contexte de dépendance grandissante vis-à-vis de quelques pays. C'est ainsi que le LNG apparaît comme une source de diversification d'approvisionnement importante notamment en provenance d'Afrique, cette dernière bénéficiant de réserves de gaz très importantes qui ne peuvent être valorisées aujourd'hui. Pour quelles raisons?
Il n'y a pas véritablement de demande intérieure et de marché local susceptibles de "consommer" ce gaz en provenance des plateformes offshore. Le gaz est donc quasiment "perdu", pas ou peu valorisé par les sociétés qui exploitent ces gisements éloignés des zones de consommation. Pas de marchés potentiels, peu de valeur. Le LNG présente un intérêt majeur pour les sociétés opérant dans le golfe de guinée surtout qu'une station de LNG vient d'être lancée cet été en Guinée équatoriale sur Bioko Island. Celle-ci sera alimentée essentiellement à l'heure actuelle par Marathon oil pour une production proche des 3 M. de tonnes de LNG /an. Ceci correspond à la mise en service du premier "train" de LNG mais un second train est en cours de négociation (4.4 M. de tonnes /an).
L'équation est donc la suivante: une offre importante de gaz en l'absence de demande locale. Le seul moyen de monétiser ce gaz est de le liquéfier afin de l'exporter vers les gros pays consommateurs comme les US ou l'Europe.
Les infrastructures de LNG sont trés "capitalistiques". Un exemple, le train 1 de LNG mentionné plus haut a coûté près d'un milliard et demi de $. Ceci peut paraître inquiétant vu la capitalisation boursière de Gasol qui frôle à peine 25 M. de $. Toutefois, cette micro société recèle de nombreux talents.
-Une équipe dirigeante "hors normes":
Dans cette partie du monde, le relationnel est un élément clé. L'atout majeur de Gasol, c'est qu'elle dispose d'un trés bon relationnel. Il faut aussi comprendre le contexte géopolitique Nigérian. Nombre de pays ont nationalisé certains gisements, sont plus restrictifs ou protectionnistes. Le Nigéria qui semblait jusqu'à présent ne pas s'engager dans cette voie à convoquer récemment l'ensemble des compagnies pétrolières ayant des intérêts sur son sol afin de renégocier les contrats de partage de production. Le nouveau président du Nigéria a chargé un homme de renégocier avec les Majors, il s'agit du Dr Rilwanu Lukman.
Qui est-il ?
Ancien secrétaire général de l'OPEP pendant 5 ans. Ancien Président de l'OPEP (7 sessions), Ministre Nigérian du pétrole. Conseiller spécial du nouveau président du Nigéria dans le domaine pétrolier et gazier. Président et fondateur de l'association des producteurs de pétrole africains. Le CV est impressionnant.
Il est, en outre, le fondateur de Gasol au coté de Osman Shahenshah et Bert Cooper.
Ces trois personnalités du monde pétrolier africain ont décidé, semble- t-il, de réunir leur relationnel et leurs compétences afin de faire émerger des acteurs privés sur la scène énergétique africaine. Trois acteurs essentiellement:
Le premier, une compagnie d'exploration et de production pétrolière dénommée AFREN. Introduite en 2005 sur l'AIM, elle est en phase de développement d'un champ pétrolier offshore au Nigéria avec comme objectif de production 15/20000 b/j d'ici la fin de l'année 2008. Son objectif dans un premier temps : reprendre des réservoirs pétroliers délaissés par les majors afin de les réactiver. Un second acteur est AFGAS. Société privée qui a pour ambition de développer le secteur du LNG au Nigéria. C'est le pendant "gaz" d'AFREN. Cette société joue un rôle central dans la stratégie mise en place par ses dirigeants. La structuration des contrats se fait autour de cette entité. Enfin Gasol, qui est la "structure" cotée d'AFGAS et qui, selon nous, a vocation à lever des capitaux afin de financer la construction des futures infrastructures.
On ne peut comprendre le potentiel de cette société qu'une fois son objectif replacé au sein d'une stratégie globale orientée vers la volonté de valoriser des ressources énergétiques via des acteurs locaux. M.Lukman a réuni une équipe expérimentée au sein de Gasol afin de lancer ce projet dans le LNG. Sans relever de manière exhaustive les membres de cette équipe, on remarquera :
Soumo Bose, ancien cadre de British Gas (BG plc), CFO d'ELNG, une joint-venture constituée entre BG, Gaz de France, Petronas et la compagnie nationale Egyptienne du gaz. Cette dernière exploitant une unité de liquéfaction produisant plus de 7 M.t. de LNG/an.
Charles Osezua, une personnalité du secteur énergétique Nigérian et, plus particulièrement, gazier. Ancien ingénieur de la compagnie nationale pétrolière du Nigéria ( NNPC), Il est à la tête d'une société spécialisée dans la distribution du gaz et conseiller technique de la société nationale chargée au Nigéria de la plus grande usine de liquéfaction, Nigéria LNG.
Osman Shahenshah, financier, un détour par Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein avant de se spécialiser dans le secteur du LNG. 15 ans d'expérience à travers des positions au sein des groupes SHELL, Chevron, Total, Agip, NNPC et Marathon oil. Il a travaillé pour le compte de Nigeria LNG, Equatorial Guinea LNG, Trinidad LNG.
Theo Oerlemans, 30 ans d'expérience chez Shell, ancien CEO et responsable du lancement de Nigéria LNG.
En conclusion, l'équipe à la tête de cette structure nous paraît armée pour atteindre ses objectifs.
-Actifs de la société :
L'actif de Gasol est, à l'heure actuelle, immatériel. Il repose sur son relationnel exceptionnel et sur la qualité de ses dirigeants. Il repose également sur une série de contrats signés principalement en fin d'année 2006 avec la compagnie nationale énergétique de Guinée équatoriale (SONAGAS), cette dernière ayant le monopole sur tous les projets en cours ou à venir sur le territoire national. Ce contrat a un objet précis, créer une joint-venture entre SONAGAS, AFGAS, AFREN et GASOL afin d'assurer l'approvisionnement du second train de LNG en négociation à l'heure actuelle.
Selon nous, ces contrats sont le fruit de l'influence de M. Lukman dans la région. Nous pensons que cela a été fait en raison de l'intérêt stratégique de désolidariser les contrats de la structure cotée en bourse. Ces contrats prévoient l'intervention de GASOL et d'AFREN en tant que fournisseur et transporteur de gaz jusqu'à l'usine de liquéfaction située sur Bioko Island. Ainsi, Gasol est en train d'absorber une à une les filiales d'AFGAS, que ce soit AFLNG ou AIL. AFGAS ayant mandaté des sociétés de services pétroliers US pour étudier le financement et les aspects techniques de ce projet, c'est GASOL qui récupère ces contrats (pipelines sous marins) à travers la filiale AIL qu'elle vient d'absorber à près de 75%.
Un accord majeur est intervenu dans la foulée de celui signé entre AFGAS et SONAGAS. Il porte sur la signature d'un accord entre la Guinée équatoriale et le Nigéria relatif à la fourniture de gaz pour la station de LNG en fonctionnement depuis peu. Voici le communiqué:
"Gasol plc ("Gasol" or "the Company") is pleased to announce that further to the announcement on 6 December 2006 by Sociedad Nacional de Gas, GE. ("Sonagas") andAfrican Gas Development Corporation ("Afgas") in relation to the exclusive joint venture agreement ("JV") to monetize natural gas supplies from Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria and Cameroon, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation ("NNPC")and the Government of Equatorial Guinea have entered into Heads of Agreement governing the supply of natural gas to Equatorial Guinea. Heads of Agreement between NNPC and the Government of Equatorial Guinea Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation ("NNPC") and the Government of Equatorial Guinea have entered into Heads of Agreement governing the supply of natural gas to Equatorial Guinea. Under the agreement, natural gas will be supplied from Nigeria to Punto Europa for the purposes of Train 2 of the Equatorial Guinea liquefied natural gas plant ("EGLNG"). Train 1 will begin deliveries of LNG to international markets from mid-2007. An additional agreement will be entered into to cover the development and construction of a pipeline from Nigeria to Punto Europa in Equatorial Guinea."
Cet accord cadre porte sur la fourniture de 200 M. CF de gaz en provenance du Cameroun et sur 600 à 800 M. CF de gaz en provenance du Nigéria. En gros, l'accord porte sur un volume de gaz journalier d'1 BCF afin d'alimenter le second train. Une "FEED" (Front End Engineering and Design) avait été commandée par Marathon oil en 2006. Celle-ci a été rendue au cours de l'été 2007. A la lecture du sentiment de plusieurs analystes, il semblerait qu'EGLNG 2 ait dépassé le stade de simple projet mais que nous en sommes au stade de finalisation. Marathon oil évoque une possible signature en début d'année 2008. Le financement d'une telle usine implique des contrats d'approvisionnement et de cession de gaz liquéfié à long terme. Les contrats d'approvisionnement ont été signés pour une durée de 20 ans à partir de 2010/2011. Les contrats de vente de la production à long terme sont le dernier maillon de ce projet. A la lecture des prévisions de demande énergétique pour les deux décennies à venir, nous pensons qu'EGLNG2 a de grandes chances de voir le jour.
L'objectif de gasol n'est donc pas, dans un premier temps, de construire ou de financer un second train de LNG mais d'assurer l'approvisionnement de l'usine de Bioko Island en investissant dans des pipelines sous-marins, créant ainsi une véritable autoroute du gaz dans cette région de l'Afrique. Les revenus générés seront essentiellement tirés de la tarification du transport des zones de production à la zone de liquéfaction. Ceci sera le fait d'AIL, AFLNG étant la filiale active de Gasol afin de prendre éventuellement une participation dans des projets d'usines de LNG voire dans le train 2 d'EGLNG.
L'actionnariat de Gasol traduit cette imbrication entre les sociétés Afren-Afgas-Gasol puisque le premier actionnaire de Gasol est Afgas. Afren détenant également près de 7% du capital de Gasol.
Pour conclure,
La sélection de Gasol, comme cible d'investissement, est fondée essentiellement sur une conviction forte, à savoir une très forte probabilité de réalisation du projet EGLNG2 et des compétences au sein de cette structure qui ne sont plus à démontrer. Le risque n'en reste pas moins important car il s'agit d'une micro société, opèrant dans une zone à risques, et dont le projet principal c'est à dire le lancement du second train d'EGLNG n'est pas encore finalisé. Elle revêt donc un caractère spéculatif assez poussé qu'il ne faut pas négliger. "
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15 commentaires:
Une équipe de choc !!
Strategic Advisor to the Board, Dr Lukman will assist Gasol in further leveraging the Company’s Gulf of Guinea relationships and building on the existing infrastructure business, in tandem with African LNG’s developing gas monetisation strategy in West Africa. Dr. Lukman's significant previous appointments include Secretary General of OPEC (five terms), President of OPEC (nine sessions), Nigerian Minister of Petroleum Resources, Special Adviser to the Nigerian President for Oil and Gas, Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nigerian Minister of Mines, and Founder and Chairman of the African Petroleum Producers Association. Dr Lukman is currently Non-Executive Chairman of Afren plc (AIM:AFR).
Chief Executive:
Soumo Bose, aged 43, most recently held a senior management position with BG plc, as Chief Financial Officer of Egyptian LNG (“ELNG”). ELNG is a US$2 billion LNG joint venture between BG plc, Petronas, Gaz de France and Egyptian State oil and gas companies, linking Egyptian natural gas to markets in Europe, North America and Asia. ELNG represents one of the largest investments in North Africa with annual capacity of 7.2 million tonnes over two LNG trains, supplying LNG to Gaz de France and the BG Group under 20 year sales arrangements. The US$1.8 billion financing for ELNG – secured from an international consortium of banks – represents the largest project financing to date in Egypt and won several international awards for its innovative structure. As Chief Financial Officer, Mr Bose played a key role in establishing ELNG as a world class LNG business.
Prior to BG plc, Mr Bose held a variety of senior management positions with SHV Gas, the world’s leading distributor of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), operating in 25 countries across Europe, Asia and South America and, with leading brands including Calorgas in the UK and Primagaz in continental Europe. During his international career with SHV Gas, where he held several board level positions, Mr Bose lived and worked in the UK, France, Netherlands, China and India. In his most recent position with SHV Gas, Mr Bose reported directly to the Global Board, in leading roles covering strategy, operations and business development across the global business portfolio. Mr Bose has been a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India since 1986.
Haresh Damodar Kanabar:
Director
Haresh Kanabar qualified as a certified accountant in 1986. Following a number of finance positions with Fisons plc, Reed International plc and Texas Homecare Limited he became finance director of F E Barber Limited, a subsidiary of Hillsdown Holdings Limited, in 1994.
In 1997 he was appointed group finance director of Whitchurch Group Plc which he left in May 1998 to become finance director of TMV Finance Limited. In December 1999 he left to join Corvus Capital Inc. as chief executive and in November 2002 he left to become finance director of Gaming Insight plc. Haresh has also been non-executive chairman of Silentpoint Plc, an AIM quoted investment company, since October 2000.
He is currently a director of Aurum Mining plc, Blue Star Capital plc, India Outsourcing Services plc and Venteco plc, companies which are all listed on AIM.
Non-Executive Director
Charles Osezua, aged 54 years, is an authority on the emerging West African gas market and will play an important role in helping Gasol establish itself as a leading player in this market. A professional engineer with a distinguished career with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mr Osezua was at the forefront of championing gas utilization and development initiatives, both within and outside of government. He is currently Chairman of the Owel-Linkso Group in Nigeria and founded Gaslink Nigeria Limited, Nigeria’s premier gas utility company and operator of the Greater Lagos gas distribution system. He was also formerly Special Assistant to the Head of State, Federal Republic of Nigeria on Petroleum Matters and a member of the Technical Advisory Committee of Nigeria LNG Limited. Mr. Osezua has received a number of honors and awards in recognition of his pioneering work, amongst which are the Officer of the Order of Niger (OON) from the Federal Government of Nigeria in October 2005, the Knighthood of St. Gregory the Great from Pope Benedict the XVI in May 2006, the NNPC Group Managing Director’s Merit Award, the West African International Gold Award for excellence in Enterprise in May 2001, the Distinguished West African Corporate Achievers Gold Award in June 2002. Mr. Osezua is also a Fellow of the Nigerian Society of Engineers.
Non-Executive Director
Paul Biggs, aged 40 years, is a project finance specialist with a focus on emerging markets. He has worked on a number of substantial infrastructure projects across Africa. He is currently a Senior Partner of the specialized law firm Trinity International LLP. Prior to joining Trinity, Mr Biggs was head of the Project Finance Group at Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP and before that a partner at CMS Cameron McKenna. Mr Biggs spent five years at the Commonwealth Development Corporation. Mr Biggs is a recognized expert in the energy and natural resources and project finance fields according to UK Legal Experts 2006 and is commended in both Chambers UK and Legal 500
Non-Executive Director
Osman Shahenshah has 16 years of international financial experience in private equity, project and structured finance, capital markets and developing and implementing public and private sector projects worldwide in energy, infrastructure and the process industries, with a primary focus on oil and gas. His international career has included senior positions in the oil and gas groups of the International Finance Corporation and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
He is a founder and director of Afren plc, an Africa focused oil and gas group. Mr Shahenshah has been actively involved in the African gas sector for more than 15 years, with companies such as Shell, Chevron, Total, Agip, NNPC and Marathon, and has worked on the Nigeria LNG, Equatorial Guinea LNG, Trinidad LNG and RasGas LNG projects.
Mr Shahenshah has a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania, a Master's degree from Columbia University and a BA from Brown University.
Non-Executive Director
Angus Robertson has more than 30 years capital markets experience. Most notably he served on the main board of International City Holidays, an international money broker, before it was acquired by Babcock.
The Board intends to make further appointments as the Company's investment programme progresses and suitable candidates for executive office are identified.
David Mortimer has joined Gasol plc in a consultancy role following a lengthy career in the development of international gas projects with British Gas and Royal Dutch Shell. Mr Mortimer, who was previously active in the Gulf of Guinea region as Managing Director of Shell Nigeria Gas Limited, has assumed theposition of Director of Technical Services in connection with the gas
infrastructure activities of AIL.
African LNG's management team comprises Theo Oerlemans, who has spent the majority of his 31-year career with the Royal Dutch Shell Group of Companies where he held senior positions in Shell's Sakhalin, Malaysia, Brunei and Oman LNG projects and was the CEO of Nigeria LNG, responsible for launching what has become the largest private sector LNG project in the world; Dr. Rilwanu Lukman is Chairman of the Board of African LNG.
En résumé, j'ai rarement vu autant de personnalités dans une micro structure.
Laloss
Gasol réagit à la recommandation d'achat qu'a initié Merryl lynch sur Afren. Gasol représente, selon moi, une opportunité exceptionnelle de se placer sur un projet encore flou..c'est un projet qui mettra de nombreuses années à se mettre en place mais dont les chances de réalisation à Lt sont élevées ( sauf catastrophe économique mondiale). C'est une société qui capitalise moins de 20 M. de $ mais qui pourrait, à terme, cad d'ici 5 ans, peser plusieurs centaines de millions de $ au minimum.
J'entrevois, à court terme, le scénario suivant:
Le consortium qui exploite l'usine de LNG située en guinée equatoriale décide l'extension de cette dernière via la construction d'un deuxième train de LNG d'ici 3/4ans, gasol étant pressentie pour acheminer le gaz à ladite station via des pipelines en provenance du nigéria. La filiale AFLNG prendrait quant à elle une part dans le projet de Train 2.
Ainsi Gasol, à travers ses deux filiales, serait à la fois fournisseur et exploitant de la station de LNG ( train 2)située en guinée equatoriale.
Ce n'est evidemment qu'un "feeling" personnel mais je crois qu'il y a de fortes chances d'assister à un tel deal d'ici quelques mois.
Et v'là t'y que le cours se met à partir en turgescence!
Bon, j'espère qu'il va se calmer, que je me place tranquillement ;-)
Elle est partie sans moi. +16%! On l'attendait à la rupture de la résistance on dirait.
Gasol, avec une capi à peine supérieure à 30M. de $, est encore relativement abordable. A 5.5 GBX, c'est évident que la marge de baisse était trés faible. A 10.5 GBX, on ne peut exclure un retour sur le seuil des 5 GBX si le projet venait à prendre du retard, ce qui est souvent le cas dans le domaine de l'énergie. Mais si une annonce d'un deal à propos du lancement du second train intervient, le cours touchera facilement les 20 gbx..et ne redescendra plus en dessous.
Laloss
Mise à jour du commentaire le 2 décembre
NIGERIA - Floating African LNG Venture.
Publication: APS Review Gas Market Trends
Date: Monday, August 13 2007
Subject: Liquefied natural gas
Product: Natural Gas Liquids ex LPG, Liquefied Natural Gas & Ethane
You are viewing page 1
Upstream on March 16, 2007, reported that a UK-based company, African LNG (AfLNG), had been set up for a 1m t/y floating LNG export plant in a shallow-water part of Nigeria. It said AfLNG had commissioned London-based Energy & Power Consultants (EPC) to look at ways of commercialising currently flared gas on a few potential sites. It said EPC had come up with a novel solution to involve a
vessel recovering LPG from flared gas which would then be "cleaned up" on an existing oil production platform before being transferred to a "fairly simple liquefaction process" on a barge. The project would cost $700m.
AfLNG is 20% owned by London-listed Gasol, which has an option to buy the remain-ing 80% of the company. Gasol has a strategic alliance with Afren, an AIM-listed E&P company. Afren has 6.5% in Gasol. Afren is controlled by African Gas Development Corp (Afgas). EPC's proposed project would take less then four years to be on stream. It says this is cheaper and faster to develop than a traditional floating LNG system which for a 1m t/y capacity would cost $1 bn.
Gazprom lorgne les réserves de gaz du Nigeria
LAGOS (Reuters) - Le monopole russe Gazprom négocie avec le Nigeria en vue d'un investissement à hauteur de 2,5 milliards de dollars pour l'exploitation des vastes réserves de gaz naturel de ce pays africain, indique-t-on à Reuters de source gouvernementale nigériane.
"Gazprom est venu voir deux fois le gouvernement fédéral. Ils veulent investir au Nigeria dans l'exploitation, la production et le traitement du gaz", dit-on de même source, en ajoutant que Gazprom a proposé d'investir entre un milliard et 2,5 milliards de dollars pour commencer.
La compagnie russe n'a pu être jointe pour un commentaire.
Les britanniques BG Group et Centrica ont aussi proposé de réaliser des investissements de plusieurs milliards de dollars dans le gaz nigérian, ajoute-t-on de même source.
Le Nigeria exporte quelque 18 millions de tonnes de gaz naturel liquéfié par an via Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas, une coentreprise où figurent la compagnie nationale nigériane, le britannique Shell, le français Total et l'italien Agip.
Tom Ashby, Peter Griffiths, version française Dominique Rodriguez
Gasol plc (AIM: GAS), whose strategic objective is to become the premier independent liquefied natural gas (LNG) company creating value by connecting LNG produced in West and Central Africa to high-value growth markets in the US and Europe, is pleased to note the appointment of Mike Burdon as Commercial Director of African LNG (AfLNG), the LNG project company in which Gasol has a 20 per cent shareholding and an option to acquire the remaining 80 per cent. Mike Burdon, an energy sector expert with more than 20 years' international experience in commercial, business development and technical roles, has an impressive track record in LNG, most recently heading up the London LNG practice at Poten & Partners (UK) Ltd, the energy consultant and ship broker. Key assignments at Poten & Partners have included LNG sales transactions from West Africa and the development of upstream energy strategies and regasification terminals. Mike Burdon, who began working at AfLNG this week, has previously been employed by oil and gas majors including Phillips Petroleum, Conoco, Hamilton Brothers Oil Corporation and British Gas. Between 2000 and 2006, he worked as an independent consultant to the oil and gas industry, where his assignments included LNG terminal development and the development of a European LNG strategy for a US independent.
Soumo Bose, Gasol's Chief Executive Officer, said: "I am delighted that Mike Burdon has taken the role of Commercial Director at AfLNG. His broad commercial, business development and technical experience combined with his specific experience of LNG in West Africa make him the ideal candidate for the job. Gasol currently holds 20 per cent of AfLNG and we look forward to exercising our option to acquire the balance of 80 per cent."
Theo Oerlemans, Chairman of African LNG, said: "I welcome Mike to AfLNG, where his wide- ranging contacts and relationships in the LNG and gas industry will be invaluable in driving forward the commercial side of the AfLNG business through consummating partnerships, strategic alliances and access deals in major gas markets."
Gasol plc (AIM: GAS), whose strategic objective is to become the premier independent liquefied natural gas (LNG) company creating value by connecting LNG produced in West and Central Africa to high-value growth markets in the US and Europe, is pleased to announce it has negotiated an extension to its option to acquire the balance of 80 per cent of the share capital of African LNG (AfLNG), the LNG project company in which Gasol currently owns 20 per cent.
AfLNG has made significant progress to date: it has identified a portfolio of LNG opportunities to monetise flared and stranded gas in West and Central Africa, and is in the final stages of discussions with major European utilities in respect of partnerships and strategic alliances to provide access to high-value markets for LNG. AfLNG has also completed key appointments to strengthen its management team.
AfLNG's portfolio of multiple land-based and floating LNG opportunities in the Gulf of Guinea region has the potential to underpin Gasol's objective of liquefying and selling 5 million tonnes of LNG within five years. AfLNG's plans to monetise flared gas are of particular interest owing to initiatives both in Africa and globally to prevent gas flaring with the objective of avoiding environmental damage and wastage of finite resources.
In order to properly value AfLNG and its portfolio of LNG opportunities, Gasol is in the final stages of discussions with leading consultancies and investment banks to carry out appropriate due diligence and provide an expert independent valuation, which will commence early in 2008. To allow time for this exercise and complete other related formalities, Gasol has negotiated an extension to its option period to acquire the balance of 80 per cent of AfLNG's shares (Option Shares) from 24 December 2007 to 30 April 2008.
Gasol has also negotiated an additional discount of 5% to the independently assessed price of the Option Shares and has agreed to continue to provide £50,000 a month to the working capital of AfLNG during the extension period. As a result, Gasol will have the right to acquire the 80 per cent shareholding at a total discount of 30% to the independent valuation, which should deliver additional value to Gasol shareholders. The consideration for the 80 per cent shareholding will be satisfied in Gasol ordinary shares at a price of 15p per ordinary share.
Soumo Bose, Gasol's Chief Executive Officer, said: "We look forward to completing the acquisition of 100% of African LNG based on a valuation by a reputed, independent consultancy or investment bank. Completion of the acquisition is expected to represent an important milestone in Gasol's development as a premier Africa focussed LNG player. We are encouraged by the continued positive fundamentals of the global LNG business and the key role West and Central African gas is expected to play in supplying gas to high-value markets in US, Europe and Asia, via the LNG route."
Documents en vrac:
Une photo de la station de LNG sur bioko island:
http://sonagas-ge.com/WEB/sonagas-reserves.html
(dans les docs, vous remarquerez la présence de Lukman et d'un directeur de GAS)
http://petrofed.winwinhosting.net/reports/GlobalLNG200703.pdf
http://www.thecwcgroup.com/UserFiles%5CCon_File%5CGOG10%20Conference%20Brochure.doc.pdf
http://www.thecwcgroup.com/UserFiles%5CCon_File%5CGOG%209%20%20-%2027%206%2006.pdf
autres docs:
http://sonagas-ge.com/WEB/sonagas-news.html?id=29
http://www.africa-energy.com/html/public/demo/AE%20106.pdf (P.21)
http://www.tradewinds.no/multimedia/archive/00081/LNGunlimited1_81666a.pdf (P.4)
http://www.david-wilmshurst.co.uk/afr/afr_merrill071004.pdf
Et enfin, le plus détaillé:
C'est une analyse initiée par Merril lynch sur Bowleven qui dispose d'un champs gazier "Etinde" à proximité de l'île de Bioko. En voici quelques extraits:
BowLeven is a Gulf of Guinea-focused E&P company,
with exploration and development assets located in
Cameroon and Gabon. Under new management since
Nov 2006, the company's stated strategic goals are to: (1)
commercialise its large Cameroonian stranded gas
condensate reserve base via a partial asset sale in 2H07
and subsequent involvement in EGLNG2, and (2) deliver
material exploration/acquisition-led capital appreciation
o ver a 3-5 year period
A re-invigoration of the Etinde commercialisation story. Under Mr Hart
the company has commenced discussions aimed at commercialising its
substantial Etinde gas condensate reserve base via involvement in
Equatorial Guinea LNG2. Further, management have made clear their
intention to pursue a c50% Etinde equity sell-down in 2H07,which in our view
should clearly demonstrate these reserves significant value.
We attribute the majority of this underperformance to the market’s failure to
recognise the tangible progress BowLeven has made towards achieving Etinde
reserve monetisation in 2H07. Specifically, we believe this lack of recognition
stems from: (1) the lack of progress made by the previous management team
over the last nine years in relation to the gas-to-power scheme proposal; and (2)
a lack of awareness of the commercial dynamics underpinning, and BowLeven’s
competitive positioning towards, the Equatorial Guinea Train 2 development.
We, in contrast, believe that BowLeven is likely to achieve a 2H07 Etinde
monetisation solution.1 This confidence is derived, firstly, from our view that EGLNG
2 is now a reality, with key developments over the last six months including: (1) the
completion of the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) study in 1Q07; (2)
Operator Marathon’s subsequent indication that they expect project sanction in
1Q08 with first gas in 2010/11; and (3) the signing of Heads of Agreement between
Equatorial Guinea and both Cameroon and Nigeria in relation to the supply of feedstock gas. Secondly, we believe that Cameroon is likely to provide the majority
of feedstock gas for this development given the lack of sufficient indigenous supply
options (even in a blue sky E&A scenario EG’s current c0.5Tcf of incremental gas
reserves would be unlikely to increase to more than c2Tcf over the next 18 months,
versus the c5 - 7Tcf requirement for train 2). Thirdly, we view BowLeven’s gas as
competitively advantaged versus other Cameroonian sources, given that it is both
the most liquids rich (and hence would yield the greatest economic rent to
Cameroon upon commercialisation) and closest in proximity to the proposed
national gas gathering hub location at Limbe. Lastly, BowLeven management have
guided the market to expect the company to pursue a partial Etinde license sale in
2H07 once the current E&A campaign has been completed. In our view this sale will
both be aimed at insuring BowLeven’s participation in EGLNG2 (with EGLNG1
participants Marathon, Noble and BG, the obvious potential buyers); while also
providing a clear valuation of this reserve base.
Equatorial Guinea LNG Phase 2
Under the new management team, BowLeven has re-focused its Etinde gas
commercialisation efforts towards participation in Equatorial Guinea LNG Train 2
(EGLNG2).
We outline the commercial structure of the ELNG project below, with the key elements
being that: (1) the c3Tcf of feedstock gas for EGLNG1 is to be supplied by the
Marathon-operated Alba gas condensate field in Equatorial Guinea under a supply
agreement with the upstream partners; (2) BG is the sole offtaker, having signed a 17
year contract to purchase all of the output from the plant’s initial train.
Subsequent gas trains are expected to be supplied from a combination of
indigenous and foreign sources, with Equatorial Guinea having signed a HoA with
both Cameroon (to supply c200mmc/d+) and Nigeria (to supply 600 – 800mmcf/d)
in relation to the supply of gas reserves for EGLNG2 over a 20 year period. Front
End Engineering and Design (FEED) work for EGLNG2 was completed in Q107,
with operator Marathon expecting to achieve project sanction in Q108 and first
gas in 2010/11. Threshold reserve volumes required for EGLNG2 are though to
be in the region of 5 - 7Tcf of gas.
Cameroon is therefore proposing that a national gas gathering hub be created,
centered around the Limbe area, whereby individual companies would sell their
gas to the SNH (the Cameroon state oil company), who in turn would onward sell
the gas to Equatorial Guinea who in turn would sell the gas to the Liquefaction
plant partners.
Assuming Cameroon were only to contribute the c200mmcf/d HoA minimum
quantity required gas volumes that would equate to a reserve requirement of
1.4Tcf. BowLeven would therefore find itself competing with other stranded gas
reserve holders in the Rio Del Ray (where the company’s block 7 is situated) and
Douala (where the company’s block 5 and 6 are situated) basins.
However, we would highlight that we see BowLeven’s gas as competitively
advantaged given: (1) that it is the most liquids rich (meaning the Cameroon
government will maximise its tax revenues by commercialising BowLeven gas
versus that of its competitors); and (2) it is closest to the proposed Limbe gas gathering site. Further, we also believe that Cameroon is likely to supply a
materially larger volume of gas to EGLNG2 than the minimum agreed under the
original HoA given: (1) the significant risked Cameroonian reserve volume
increases achieved following the signing of the original HoA, not least those
associated with BowLeven’s recent exploration and appraisal successes; and (2)
the differentially high Nigerian political risk profile. It is clear to us that given the
choice, Equatorial Guinea would prefer incremental Train 2 gas volumes to be
sourced from the relatively politically stable Cameroon versus the politically
unstable Nigeria.
Management have guided the market to expect BowLeven to seek to further
competitively advantage its Cameroonian gas through a c50% operated equity
sale in 2H07 (with BG, Marathon and Noble the obvious potential buyers, given
their participation in EGLNG1).
http://www.gasol.co.uk/downloads/GasolPlc_AfLNG_EON_Afren_Agreement.pdf
African LNG signs co-operation agreement with E.ON and Afren
Gasol plc (AIM: GAS), whose strategic objective is to become the premier independent liquefied natural gas (LNG) company creating value by producing and supplying LNG from West and Central Africa to high-value growth markets in the US and Europe, is pleased to note the press release this morning from Afren Plc announcing a co-operation agreement between African LNG Holdings Limited ("African LNG"), E.ON Ruhrgas AG ("E.ON Ruhrgas") and Afren plc ("Afren") to assess the feasibility of developing, aggregating and monetizing Nigerian gas reserves for domestic and export purposes.
Gasol holds a 20 per cent shareholding in African LNG, an LNG company focussed on West and Central Africa. Gasol has an option to acquire the remaining 80 per cent, which if exercised would represent a significant landmark in the development of the Company.
Soumo Bose, Gasol's Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"African LNG's co-operation agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas and Afren is an important milestone in African LNG's ambitions to build an integrated LNG position in the Gulf of Guinea. Afren, which has a strategic interest in Gasol, is well positioned to become a significant gas producer in Nigeria and LNG represents a key component to diversifying E.ON Ruhrgas's supply base.
"This is a particularly exciting opportunity for African LNG, which will be Afren's exclusive downstream liquefaction partner in developing an LNG monetization strategy."
The full text of Afren's announcement follows:
Afren plc (AIM: AFR)
Afren enters into a co-operation agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas AG and African LNG
Holdings Limited
London, 22 January 2008 - Afren plc ("Afren" or "the Company") announces that it has entered into a co-operation agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas AG and African LNG Holdings Limited.
The Board of Afren is delighted to announce that the Company has signed a co-operation agreement ("the Agreement") with E.ON Ruhrgas AG ("E.ON Ruhrgas") and African LNG Holdings Limited ("African LNG") to investigate the availability and accessibility of gas in Nigeria, with a focus on the Anambra Basin and South Eastern regions. The parties have the intention to jointly develop, collect and monetize the gas for domestic and export purposes in line with the Nigerian Government's Gas Master Plan.
The Agreement
The Agreement includes an analysis of potential feedgas, based on an identified target list of upstream gas rich assets and a study of gas gathering infrastructure and potential LNG export solutions. The parties will subsequently decide on jointly establishing corporate structures and funding arrangements.
Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren, commented:
"We are delighted to have signed a cooperation agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas and African LNG. We are honoured to be working with E.ON Ruhrgas, a pre-eminent gas company. Afren remains at the forefront in contributing to the Government's ambitions to develop Nigeria into a major gas producer and assist with the reduction of gas flaring in the region. The cooperation agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas and African LNG to develop upstream gas allows Afren to capitalise on the anticipated growth in global LNG demand, without diluting our upstream focused strategy."
Dr Dietrich Gerstein, Senior Vice President, LNG Supply Division, of E.ON Ruhrgas, commented:
"LNG is a key element in diversifying E.ON Ruhrgas's gas supply base. Nigeria is an important target region in the LNG strategy of our company. Within this strategy, the activities conducted under the Agreement with Afren and African LNG can serve as a basis for building an integrated LNG position, including upstream participation, in a significant global gas basin."
Theo Oerlemans, Chairman of African LNG commented:
"It is our strong belief that West Africa will grow as a major LNG supply point for countries throughout the Atlantic Basin including key markets in Europe and North America. The Agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas and Afren represents an important milestone for our ambitions to become the premier independent integrated LNG company in the Gulf of Guinea."
Background
The Gulf of Guinea has over 200 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, with more than 80% of those reserves situated in Nigeria. Afren is currently in negotiations on a number of gas rich upstream assets in Nigeria. African LNG will be Afren's exclusive downstream liquefaction partner, in developing a monetization strategy.
The Nigerian Government's 2008 Gas Master Plan focuses on diversifying gas usage between domestic and export purposes. Exploration, aggregation and reduction of flaring are integral to the Gas Master Plan. Against this background, any future joint efforts by the Parties of the Agreement will work towards a multi faceted gas solution including an LNG export facility.
LNG will be a key source of new supply to meet increasing global gas demand. Combined with depletion of indigenous supplies from US and Europe and lack of flexibility of piped alternatives, LNG is emerging as a swing supplier in an increasingly global market.
22 January 2008
For further information:
Gasol plc Tel: 020 7290 3300
Soumo Bose, Chief Executive Officer
Buchanan Communications Tel: 020 7466 5000
Mark Court James Strong
Jefferies International Ltd Tel: 020 7029 8000
Toby Hayward Oliver Griffiths
Background information
E.ON Ruhrgas
E.ON Ruhrgas, is part of the E.ON group and the lead company (market unit) of E.ON's Pan-European Gas business, pooling the mid-stream business which covers gas purchasing and sale as well as gas storage. Customers are regional and local distribution companies, industry and power stations. The supply system consists of more than 11,000 km of pipeline, 11 underground storage facilities and 28 compressor stations. The company and its affiliates offer a wide range of services and products for the transmission, storage, marketing and use of natural gas.
E.ON is the world's largest investor-owned energy service provider, based in Dusseldorf, Germany and with approximately 80,000 employees worldwide. In 2006, E.ON had approximately EUR68 billion in worldwide sales.
E.ON engages in continuous expansion through their integrated business model with sustainable operations along the entire value chain. E.ON intends to systematically cement and enlarge its market position by investing in capacity maintenance and growth. The Company is keen to continue its growth through entering new markets, expanding its LNG business and investing in gas transport and storage infrastructure.
E.ON's position in both the European and US markets makes it ideally placed to take advantage of the emerging opportunities in the Atlantic Basin LNG business.
African LNG Holdings Limited
African LNG is a company with a formidable management team with significant experience of the oil and gas industry and uniquely of LNG in Africa. African LNG's management team is led by Theo Oerlemans, who has spent the majority of his 30-year plus career with the Royal Dutch Shell Group of Companies where he held senior positions in Shell's Sakhalin, Malaysia, Brunei and Oman LNG projects and was the CEO of Nigeria LNG, responsible for launching what has become the largest private sector LNG project in the world.
African LNG intends to become the premier independent integrated LNG company in the Gulf of Guinea with planned operations across the LNG value chain, from gas gathering and liquefaction to shipping, storage and re-gasification in the Atlantic Basin.
Afren Plc
Afren (www.afren.com) was founded in December 2004 by a management team including Dr Rilwanu Lukman, (Chairman), Osman Shahenshah, (Chief Executive) and Bert Cooper (Advisor to the Board), with the vision to become the premier pan African independent Exploration and Production company. Afren has built an executive and non-executive management and advisory team with broad and extensive experience in the industry, both in West Africa and internationally; in identifying and completing corporate expansion opportunities and in public company financing. Afren also looks to leverage key relationships across the region to gain preferential access to opportunities.
Since its listing on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, Afren has rapidly expanded its portfolio and the management team has delivered a portfolio of assets in Nigeria, the Joint Development Zone of Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe, Gabon, Angola, Congo Brazzaville and Ghana.
Afren will continue to add to its diversified portfolio of near term development and high impact exploration, with the overall objective of creating substantial shareholder value.
Gasol plc
Gasol plc was established in February 2005 to identify and secure acquisition and investment opportunities in the oil and gas sectors. Following its IPO on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange on 16 March 2005, Gasol has refined its strategy to focus on opportunities in liquefied natural gas in the Gulf of Guinea region of West Africa.
Gasol's strategic objective is to become a significant independent Gulf of Guinea focused player across the entire LNG value chain, in partnership with governments, energy and utility majors and independents. The Company's aim is to procure, liquefy and sell 5 million tonnes of LNG within five years with a longer term plan of achieving 10 million tonnes of LNG capacity thereby capturing substantial gas monetisation value by connecting low cost African gas to high value markets in the US and Europe.
Significant progress has been made, through its investee company AfLNG in which Gasol holds a 20 per cent shareholding and has an option to acquire the remaining 80 per cent, in business development initiatives consisting of multiple conventional / floating LNG projects in Central and West Africa.
Gasol derives the benefit of a strong board with unparalleled experience and relationships in the oil and gas business in Africa consisting of Dr Osman Shahenshah (CEO of Afren plc), Dr Charles Osezua (formerly a Special Assistant to the Nigerian Head of State on petroleum matters and now Chairman of the Owel-Linkso Group, a leading gas company in West Africa); Mr Paul Biggs (a project finance specialist and partner of Trinity International LLP); and Mr Haresh Kanabar. Dr Rilwanu Lukman, the former OPEC President & Secretary General who is currently Honorary Advisor to the President of Nigeria on Energy and Strategic Matters and Chairman of Afren plc, is Strategic Advisor to the Board. Gasol's management team, under the leadership of CEO Mr Soumo Bose, is well positioned to drive the strategy forward to establish Gasol as a leading Africa focused LNG player.
Gasol shares trade under the ticker symbol "AIM: GAS". Further information is available from the Company's website, www.gasolplc.com.
Merrill Lynch published the following note yesterday after the Afren/EoN/African LNG announcement.
'"Afren has this morning anounced that it has entered into a co-operation
agreement with E.ON Ruhrgas AG (the German utility) and African LNG Holdings (a private company linked to Afren led by Theo Oerlemans, the former CEO of Nigeria LNG) to investigate the availability and accessibility of gas in Nigeria, with a focus on the Anambra Basin and South Eastern regions. The parties have the intention to jointly develop, collect and monetise the gas for domestic and export purposes in line with the Nigerian Government's 2008 Gas Master Plan.The
Agreement includes an analysis of potential feedgas, based on an identified target list of upstream gas rich assets and a study of gas gathering infrastructure and potential LNG export solutions. The parties will subsequently decide on jointly establishing corporate structures and funding arrangements.
We view this morning's anouncement extremely positively. It would apear that Afren is aiming to access a host of multi-Tcf gas opportunities in Nigeria, leveraging Eon's execution and midstream skills to commercialise this gas. If this JV were to progress as planned we would expect the partners (Afren, Eon and African LNG holdings) to anounce the acquistion of signficant gas reserves and the commencemnet of an LNG FEED study within the next 18 months.
We remain strong Afren buyers, with our key investment themes contiuing to centre around: (1) well connected and proven management team; (2) strong deal pipeline likely to result in series of materially NAV accretive asset deals in 1Q/2Q08; (3) strong forecast production growth; and (4) valaution, with the stock trading at a 15% disocunt to our 106p/sh NAV (core - 74p/sh, dev - 84p/sh, exploration - 22p/sh)."
Innovative gas export vessel in view for possible 2010 start-up
New LNG floater on Nigeria radar
By Upstream staff
A ground-breaking $700 million offshore liquefied natural gas project could be up and running as early as 2010 in Nigeria if African LNG (AfLNG), a recently established UK-based company, sanctions the development.
AfLNG has at its helm former Opec president Rilwanu Lukman and ex-Shell LNG expert Theo Oerlemans. It has commissioned London-based Energy&Power Consultants (EPC) to look at ways of commercialising currently flared gas on a few potential sites in the Nigerian play, and on one in particular.
EPC, which has been heavily involved in floating LNG feasibility studies on the unnamed Bight of Benin scheme, has come up with a novel solution that could export 1 million tonnes per annumof LNG and would signify an important step in taking LNG plants into the offshore environment.
The shallow-water scheme would likely involve a bespoke vessel akin to SBM Offshore's Sanha liquefied petroleum gas unit currently working for Chevron in Angola recovering liquefied petroleum gas from flared gas.
The gas would then be "cleaned up" on an existing oil production platform before being transferred to a "fairly simple liquefaction process" on a barge.
According to EPC's Brian Songhurst, this proposal has been costed at about $700 million, compared with a $1 billion price tag predicted for a project that would incorporate all processing and liquefaction technology on one large new vessel.
The scheme would involve a $300 million gas processing barge transferring product, via a fixed jetty, to a $100 million LNG storage tanker, which would then discharge its contents to a conventional shuttle tanker, again via the same fixed jetty.
Songhurst said this concept although only applicable to shallow and relatively benign waters has a number of key advantages over conventional floating LNG solutions.
These include reduced relative vessel motions, a cheaper and faster development, the use of existing technology and the ability to issue more engineering, procurement and construction packages, rather than sourcing a single contractor for
the whole project.
He estimates EPC's proposed scheme would take three or more years to come on stream from project sanction, compared with at least four years for a traditional floating LNG solution.
AfLNG is 20% owned by London-listed minnow Gasol, which also has an option to buy the remaining 80% of the company. Gasol has a strategic alliance with Afren, an AIM-listed upstream player chaired by Lukman.
Afren controls a 6.5% stake in Gasol but the largest shareholder is African Gas Development Corporation (Afgas), another Lukman-backed company, which recently struck a deal with Sonagas, Equatorial Guinea's state gas company, that could see it participate in projects supplying Nigerian and Cameroonian gas to future LNG schemes on Bioko Island.
Meanwhile, Gasol has acquired a 75% stake in Afgas Infrastructure Ltd, a company established to support its parent company Afgas' gas infrastructure-related activities in the Gulf of Guinea.
Gazprom espère signer un accord gazier au Nigeria avant fin mai
ABUJA, 20 février (Reuters) - Gazprom , le monopole russe des exportations de gaz naturel, espère conclure avant la fin mai un accord d'exploration de plusieurs milliards de dollars avec le Nigeria, a déclaré mercredi l'un de ses dirigeants.
"Nous visons la fin mai", a dit à la presse Boris Ivanov, directeur général de la filiale néerlandaise du groupe. "Il s'agira assurément de plusieurs milliards de dollars. C'est important."
Le gouvernement nigérian avait annoncé le mois dernier que Gazprom investirait entre un et 2,5 milliards de dollars dans le développement du secteur gazier sur son sol.
Ivanov a précisé que les négociations visaient à assurer à Gazprom la possibilité de rechercher non seulement du gaz, mais aussi du pétrole.
Le Nigeria se classe au septième rang mondial en terme de réserves gazières prouvées mais il peine à développer ce secteur.
Ivanov, qui a rencontré ces derniers jours le président nigérian Umaru yar'Adua, a expliqué que des investissements dans le domaine du gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) au Nigeria étaient justifiés, ce pays étant plus proche que la Russie du marché nord-américain.
Il a laissé entendre que Gazprom pourrait annoncer la conclusion d'un accord à l'occasion d'une conférence sur le gaz au Nigeria en mai./
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